humani nil a me alienum puto

random rants about news, the law, healthcare law, economics and anything I find amusing

World Bank and H1N1 Economic Forecast

In a follow-up to one of my prior posts (Birds or Pigs?; Pigs Have It), I spotted (thanks to the WSJ Health Blog and Bloomberg) that the The World Bank issued a recent report on the global recovery, entitled Global Development Finance: Charting a Global Recovery.  In it it discusses the potential impact of H1N1 on economic recovery, estimating that by next season the impact of H1N1 is likely to be at least as severe as the Hong Kong Flue of 1968-69.  It also cites other studies to give a range of potential impact on world-wide GNP between 0.7% and 4.8%.   The impact on Mexico, where H1N1 has had a severe effect on tourism and has shut down large sectors of its economy at the start of (or at least the realization of) the outbreak, has been severe.  Estimates are a second quarter 2009 decrease in that country’s output by appoximately 2.2%.

Simulations of the potential economic and human costs of a global pandemic undertaken for the 2006 Global Development Finance report in the context of avian influenza (Burns, van der Mensbrugghe, and Timmer 2006, 2008) suggest that the costs of a global influenza pandemic could range from 0.7 to 4.8 percent of global GDP depending on the severity of the outbreak. The lower estimate is based on the Hong Kong flu of 1968–69, while the upper bound was benchmarked on the 1918–19 Spanish flu. In the case of a serious flu, 70 percent of the overall economic cost would come from absenteeism and efforts to avoid infection. Generally speaking, developing countries would be hardest hit, because higher population densities, relatively weak health care systems, and poverty accentuate the economic impacts in some countries.

Advertisements

Filed under: Health Law, Personal Posts, Public Health, , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

HealthCounsel Tweets

%d bloggers like this: