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random rants about news, the law, healthcare law, economics and anything I find amusing

Healthcare Economic – Supply/Demand Side Goals to Reform

Over the years Uwe E. Reinhardt has written, lectured and testified extensively on health care economics, alternative health care financing and delivery systems (e.g., here and here) and health care financing and delivery reform in the United States.  He’s one of those guys I recall studying back in undergraduate health care economics classes (who can forget a name like Uwe).

In a recent NYT Economix blog post he provides succinct economics supply side/demand side breakdown of what the general economic goals are for health care financing and delivery reform as currently evisioned.  I thought was a useful way of looking at the (rational) parts of the current debate.   I emphatically take no position on health care reform policy initiatives, but in light of so much of the rather less than civil polemics I see around the policy debate, this seems a return to basic analytics of what might be accomplished through reform.

1. Financial barriers should not stand between Americans and preventive or acute health care that they sincerely believe will address concerns over a troubling medical condition, in a timely manner, before that condition grows into a critically serious illness.

2. Having received needed health care, no American family should be so financially devastated by medical bills that it cannot meet routine daily living expenses — for example, make utility or mortgage payments on time or finance the education of the family’s children.

3. The future growth in national health spending should be constrained to fall significantly below currently projected spending growth, which has the United States devoting about 40 percent of its G.D.P. to health care by midcentury.All other goals are subordinate to these three overarching goals, as are the means to reach them.

He breaks it down into into one slide — which I think, again, fairly succinctly states the targeted supply/demand side areas:

I found it natural to categorize these components into those aimed mainly at reforming the demand side of the health sector, those aimed mainly at the supply side, and those cutting across both sides — e.g., payment reform and overall cost control.health care delivery

He then discusses the time frame for reform.   He feels with good reason that the supply side fix (top left box), while incredibly challenging, would be achievable through current legislation.   He indicates, however, that it would not be particularly successful unless certain core requirements are met to address the adverse selection/moral hazard problems inherent in the fix.

He notes, however, that the right box and the cross-cutting payment reform (bottom boxes) can only be accomplished over a much extended period due to their complexity, lack of current infrastructure (e.g., systemic and cross-functional EHR systems, solid quality measurement systems, systems whereby health care providers can assume and manage financial risk for populations) and a public policy and business driven process of how to actually move from FFS systems to some form of bundled payment or capitation.

If 1) either private or public health insurers must accept all comers and may not base premiums on the applicant’s health status, then 2)  individuals must be mandated to purchase at least a basic package of health insurance, lest they freeload on the system. Such a mandate, in turn, requires that 3) families be publicly subsidized to make the cost of that basic package affordable to them. A sound reform of the health insurance market cannot have just two of these features. It must have all three.

****

Designing and implementing the rest of the reform agenda in the chart — reforming the supply side, payment reform and cost control — is a much longer-run effort that may take an entire decade or more. It is more challenging than was landing a man on the moon, as no moneyed lunar interest groups sought to prevent man’s visit there.

The delema should be obvious.  Given Dr. Reinhardt’s core requirements for supply side reform, the ability to subsidize #1 (preventative intervention) and #2 (insurance against catostrophic financial loss due to illness) universally is going to be extraordinarily costly to public fisc.  Without management of #3 (which isn’t going to come without significant challenge) the money must come from somewhere.  And, of course, if #3 is not achievable for some unspecified extended period, gap financing is necessary.   Richard Posner recently has a post on just this point.

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Filed under: Health Law, Personal Posts, Reform, , , ,

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