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random rants about news, the law, healthcare law, economics and anything I find amusing


In a follow-up to previous posts (here, here) on H1N1, I’m catching up on reading from this week and I must have missed the White House’s report on possible effects of a resurgence of the swine flu pandemic this fall and winter.   I read through the report and it is eye opening, although not as dire as some possible scenarios presented by at least some for a pandemic avian flu.  According to the White House advisory panel report a possible scenario would:

•produce infection of 30–50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter, with symptoms in approximately 20–40% of the population (60–120 million people), more than half of whom would seek medical attention.
•lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, with up to 300,000 patients requiring care in intensive care units (ICUs). Importantly, these very ill patients could occupy 50–100 percent of all ICU beds in affected regions of the country at the peak of the epidemic and could place enormous stress on ICU units, which normally operate close to capacity.
•cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States, concentrated among children
and young adults. In contrast, the 30,000–40,000 annual deaths typically associated with seasonal flu in the United States occur mainly among people over 65. As a result, 2009-H1N1 would lead to many more years of life lost.
•pose especially high risks for individuals with certain pre-existing conditions, including pregnant women and patients with neurological disorders or respiratory impairment, diabetes, or severe obesity and possibly for certain populations, such as Native Americans.

The NY Times later reported that the CDC had indicated that this was not a “likely scenario,” which may be reassuring.

Also of note, The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services  issued a memo and fact sheet clarifying permissible options under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act for hospitals handling a surge in patients with swine flu.  The fact sheet discusses options for hospitals experiencing surges with and without a declared ‘waiver’ of EMTALA (requiring presidential emergency declaration and certain other actions), including out of department medical screening exams and off-campus flu screening centers.

PCAST_H1N1_Report.pdf (application/pdf Object).

Filed under: Health Law, Public Health, , , ,

World Bank and H1N1 Economic Forecast

In a follow-up to one of my prior posts (Birds or Pigs?; Pigs Have It), I spotted (thanks to the WSJ Health Blog and Bloomberg) that the The World Bank issued a recent report on the global recovery, entitled Global Development Finance: Charting a Global Recovery.  In it it discusses the potential impact of H1N1 on economic recovery, estimating that by next season the impact of H1N1 is likely to be at least as severe as the Hong Kong Flue of 1968-69.  It also cites other studies to give a range of potential impact on world-wide GNP between 0.7% and 4.8%.   The impact on Mexico, where H1N1 has had a severe effect on tourism and has shut down large sectors of its economy at the start of (or at least the realization of) the outbreak, has been severe.  Estimates are a second quarter 2009 decrease in that country’s output by appoximately 2.2%.

Simulations of the potential economic and human costs of a global pandemic undertaken for the 2006 Global Development Finance report in the context of avian influenza (Burns, van der Mensbrugghe, and Timmer 2006, 2008) suggest that the costs of a global influenza pandemic could range from 0.7 to 4.8 percent of global GDP depending on the severity of the outbreak. The lower estimate is based on the Hong Kong flu of 1968–69, while the upper bound was benchmarked on the 1918–19 Spanish flu. In the case of a serious flu, 70 percent of the overall economic cost would come from absenteeism and efforts to avoid infection. Generally speaking, developing countries would be hardest hit, because higher population densities, relatively weak health care systems, and poverty accentuate the economic impacts in some countries.

Filed under: Health Law, Personal Posts, Public Health, , , ,


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